We are currently in a declining trend in the market and internals are telling us that this weakness will continue to be a problem. Our primary indicators in the short- and intermediate-term have topped with one exception. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) started down on Thursday and the STO-B continued to fall Friday. The STO-V interestingly turned up, but we wouldn’t get too excited.
The intermediate-term indicators, the ITBM and ITVM, topped and are moving down. It was an eye test on the ITBM on Thursday as to whether it had indeed declined. We checked and it had. Just another reason to look for more market decline.
Participation is leaking from the market. As price has started to turn over, so has participation. We note that participation readings of stocks above key moving averages shows declining trends which confirm near-term weakness.
The Silver Cross Index measures how many stocks have a 20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA (a Silver Cross). It is trying to top right now. We have a declining trend from the October top. With participation sinking, it won’t be long before this indicator tops too.
The Golden Cross Index measures how many stocks have a 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA (a Golden Cross). That indicator has stagnated and is currently in decline below its signal line. Deterioration is visible on this chart.
Conclusion: We have a short-term declining trend in the market and failing internals. The ITBM/ITVM are declining, along with the STO-B. It is going to be very difficult for price to move higher when fewer stocks are participating.
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